Housing starts to grow 21% in 2011

Housing will see gradual improvements this year, establishing momentum for stronger gains in 2012, said economists at the National Association of Home Builders International Builders’ Show recently.

"This year’s spring selling season will be better than last year’s,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, with job growth providing a stronger stimulus in the housing market than last year’s federal homebuyer tax credit.

Crowe forecasted 575,000 single-family home starts in 2011, a 21% climb over an estimated 475,000 units started in 2010, which in turn showed a 7% gain from the 442,000 homes started in 2009.

New-home sales, Crowe projected, “will struggle” but begin following employment gains, reaching 405,000 for the year, up from an estimate of about 320,000 for 2010.

Potential buyers who have resources to buy but want to buy at the bottom are likely to start coming into the market in the springtime,” he said.

Fixed-rate mortgages will move up from their current 4.75% to the 5.75% range by the end of this year, he forecasted. This will push total single-family mortgage originations down about 30% below the 2010 level as refinancings fall sharply with rising mortgage rates.